| Резюме: | President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s plan to end Ukraine’s nearly three-year war with Russia has received mixed reactions from Western allies so far. The “victory plan” that Zelenskyy outlined at home and abroad includes a formal invitation for Ukraine to join NATO and permission to use Western long-range missiles to strike military targets in Russia — two steps Kyiv’s allies have been reluctant to support before. U.S. backing is crucial if Zelenskyy is to get support from other allies for proposals he believes are necessary to strengthen Ukraine’s position on the battlefield and ahead of any peace negotiations. But analysts say the Biden administration is unlikely to make a decision before the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, as it may not appeal to voters. “They seem to be just doing very little now and waiting for the election,” said Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews, Scotland. “So much of the strategy will live or die in Washington.” Analysts said the plan is a step in the right direction for Ukraine’s military efforts. They also described it as ambitious, given allies’ fears of escalation with nuclear-armed Russia. Ukraine has previously secured Western support for requests once deemed unrealistic, such as Patriot air defense systems and F-16 jets. Presenting the plan now puts on the radar for the next U.S. administration, analysts said, though it’s unknown how the next president will receive it. After returning from making his case to the European Council, Zelenskyy said he expects the White House to provide feedback. “They will be here soon with some form of response,” he said. Will the plan bring victory to Ukraine? Zelenskyy laid out the five-point plan as Ukraine’s troops struggle to hold back Russian slow but steady advances in eastern Ukraine. The plan includes three “secret annexes” that were presented only to some leaders. It also addresses partners’ concerns about Ukraine’s strategy after the failed summer 2023 counteroffensive. Zelenskyy described the main goal as “to strengthen us and force Russia to come to the negotiating table with all partners.” The plan won’t immediately alter the battlefield situation, but it will help Ukraine wear down Russia and give more means to keep going in the attrition war. “I think people were potentially expecting some sort of more operational plan on winning the war,” said Justin Crump, a former British tank commander who heads Sibylline, a strategic advisory firm. “That’s a naive opinion to have expected a plan to have provided operational details that would obviously be of use to the enemy.” Some Ukrainian analysts blame the name of the plan, adding that it was likely chosen for marketing purposes. Ukrainian analyst Yurii Bohdan said the goal is get resources. “To win such war (of attrition), Ukraine needs to increase its resilience and exhaust its opponent,” said Glib Voloskyi, an analyst from a Ukrainian think tank, Come Back Alive Initiatives Center. “The side that falls last wins.” What was the allies’ response? U.S. reaction was muted and noncommittal, though it did issue a new $425 million package of security assistance for Ukraine the day that Zelenskyy presented the plan to lawmakers. “It’s not my position to publicly evaluate his plan,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said. “We have been supporting him by providing security assistance in a major way for 2 1/2 years. We are going […] |